AI is reshaping work, ushering in a new era for the skilled trades
Marco Zappacosta•Co-Founder & CEO of Thumbtack •Last updated Sep 16, 2026
Last updated Sep 16, 2026
Table of Contents
- Gen Z faces a career confidence crisis
- Young people like what they see in the skilled trades — and so do pros
- Younger tradespeople are different — and established pros are evolving
- Business is good — but doing business can be challenging
- Where homeowners are keeping pros busy
- The new era of skilled trades
The rise of AI is upending the traditional career playbook. As once-stable career paths become less certain, Gen Z is looking at where opportunity might actually be. The skilled trades offer something different: work that remains fundamentally human, with AI creating new potential for productivity, growth, and career stability.
For Thumbtack’s 2026 Future of the Skilled Trades Report, we explore the impact of AI on Gen Z’s education and career decisions, the changing face of the trades workforce, and what it takes to build a successful business in an increasingly complex market.
Gen Z faces a career confidence crisis
As headlines sound alarms about AI replacing human workers, it’s no surprise that Gen Z is concerned about their future prospects. Most (80 percent) of those surveyed believe that AI will eliminate many traditional entry-level jobs, while a majority (52 percent) believe career paths are less stable than ever before. Only a third report being on a defined career path.
That uncertainty is already changing behavior: 92 percent have made at least one change to their career strategy in response to the job market. More than a quarter are seriously considering changing their long-term education plans — or have already decided to do so. Even those who went the distance in school may be having second thoughts. Among those with a bachelor’s degree, over one in four say that college made them more interested in non-degree-based jobs, while a quarter left questioning whether their degree was the right path for their goals. As AI makes many office jobs less of a sure thing, young people are prioritizing careers offering long-term stability, entrepreneurial opportunity, and flexibility.
Young people like what they see in the skilled trades — and so do pros
As AI puts white-collar jobs at risk, Gen Z is seeing the skilled trades as a more secure and promising career path. Most (82 percent) feel that the skilled trades offer better long-term job security than many office jobs, with three in four believing they may become one of the smartest career choices for their generation. And perceptions are shifting: a majority view the trades more positively now than they did five years ago, with nearly three-quarters considering them part of a “New American Dream.”
The trades aren’t just gaining favor with Gen Z. They’re becoming a serious career consideration. Nearly 9 in 10 have looked into the skilled trades, with almost half learning or seriously considering one amidst uncertainty about the future job market. For some, that curiosity is becoming a concrete career move.
Jack Marquardt, owner of Electric Avenue and Gen Z himself, has built an entire team of under-30 tradespeople. “We’re passionate about the opportunities for financial stability, career growth, and long-term success the skilled trades offer for young people,” he says. “These careers are a natural fit for a generation that wants to control their own destiny, and we in the industry have seen for ourselves just how rewarding this work can be.”
Marquardt isn’t alone in his job satisfaction. Nearly four out of five Thumbtack pros feel the same way. Many were drawn to the field for similar reasons as Gen Z, such as wanting a more flexible schedule (47 percent) and the opportunity to own a business (58 percent). Based on their experience, nearly eight out of ten pros would recommend the trades to a young person.
Younger tradespeople are different — and established pros are evolving
The newest skilled trades professionals are arriving with different career experiences, motivations, and approaches to the job. Those with less than two years under their belt are twice as likely as other pros to have transitioned from white-collar careers, often seeking a reset after burning out on their previous path. The move is working well, with half or more reporting growing demand and rising income.
It’s not only the newest pros who have embraced AI. Three-fifths of all pros have used AI for their business, most often for marketing (33 percent), customer communication (30 percent), and research (23 percent). Such tools have even made inroads among the most senior in the field, with more than a quarter of pros with 20+ years of experience using AI regularly — and nearly one in six of those over 60.
As pros become more comfortable with AI, they’re remaining level-headed about its impact on their field. Almost none (3 percent) see AI replacing tradespeople as their biggest business concern. Instead, they’re focused on making sure workers develop real expertise before relying on AI (29 percent), preserving craftsmanship in a tech-driven era (24 percent), and helping customers understand the value of human expertise over AI-generated tips (33 percent).
Business is good — but doing business can be challenging
On the positive side, nearly half of Thumbtack pros report growing demand for their services and are earning more than they did a year ago. Nearly three-quarters even turned away work in the past year. But strong demand doesn't always translate into viable work. Pros most often turned down jobs because they weren’t the right fit (44 percent) or weren’t profitable enough (43 percent). That selectivity reflects the realities of running a skilled trades business, where pros have to weigh projects against their expertise, costs, and priorities.
And those aren’t the only pressures pros have to navigate. Low-cost competition and price-sensitive customers are squeezing profit margins. Meanwhile, operational demands like office work eat into hours available for earning income, with almost half of pros spending more than one-quarter of their work week on administration.
Deon Marecheau, owner of Antillean Restoration, is already investing in the next generation through apprenticeships with local trade and high schools. “There’s a lot of interest from young people who want to learn the trades, but they need opportunities to get on a jobsite and put those skills to work,” he says. “Bringing apprentices onto our team gives us a chance to develop talented people who can grow with our business or take those skills wherever their career leads.”
Where homeowners are keeping pros busy
When there are more jobs to get done than pros to do them, skilled tradespeople may have more opportunity to win new work. As part of our study, we analyzed the nation’s top metro areas to see where homeowner demand is most intense and which cities have the fewest pros per capita. Based on these findings, we identified ten American cities offering the best opportunities for skilled trades pros to keep their schedules full and their profits strong.
The new era of skilled trades
America needs more skilled workers. AI doesn't change that. It actually makes the need even more urgent. The challenge now is to bring more people into these careers and give pros better tools to build thriving businesses once they're there.
But the work itself remains human. You can't automate the electrician's judgment, the carpenter's craftsmanship, or the trust a homeowner places in someone working within their home.
The future of the skilled trades is changing before our eyes. It's what becomes possible when we open up more paths into the trades for the people who want them, and develop smarter technology for the pros already there.
Future of the Skilled Trades Report Methodology
Gen Z Survey: This sample of 1,000 U.S. young adults (aged 16-30) was surveyed on July 20, 2026 and July 21, 2026. Sampling was calibrated to reflect population demographic distribution. DKC Analytics conducted and analyzed this survey with a sample procured using the Pollfish survey delivery platform. No post-stratification has been applied to the results. Margin of error = 3.1 percent.
Thumbtack Pro Survey: Survey results are based on responses from 1,495 Thumbtack pros, consisting of 1,037 completed and 458 partially completed responses. These individuals were surveyed between June 17 and July 17, 2026. All respondents are primarily employed in the skilled trades in home construction, home maintenance or home systems. Thumbtack conducted this survey via link sharing through their internal email list. No post-stratification has been applied to the results.
Thumbtack Data: City rankings are based on available pros and consumer requests submitted on the Thumbtack platform between January 1 and July 28, 2026 for skilled trades-related services. Rankings are generated using an index that measures both labor supply strength and demand intensity for the skilled trades in each city. Labor supply strength is measured by both the number of pros available per capita and year-over-year growth in the number of available pros. Demand intensity is measured by average number of customer projects submitted per available professional, customer projects per capita, and year-over-year growth in total customer projects. All metrics in the index are standardized and equally weighted.
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